“The coronavirus is the biggest threat this country has faced for decades.”
Those were the words used by Prime Minister Boris Johnson on this day two years ago when he outlined the first of a series of lockdowns in an effort to curb the spread of COVID-19.
The announcement made leaving the house illegal except for limited exceptions such as one hour of exercise each day and shopping for basic necessities.
But at the end of the address to the nation, most people believed the response would be temporary and the threat short-lived.
However, two years on, COVID-19 continues to have a profound impact on everyday life and it is likely that a return to complete normality is still a long way off yet.
“COVID will be around for a long time,” said Colin Cox, Cumbria’s public health director, who has been at the forefront of the county’s response to coronavirus.
“We are not quite there (where the virus becomes more predictable and is something that most people don’t worry about).
“All pandemics end and when this does, it may well be that COVID becomes something like flu where we may need an annual booster campaign.
“In my opinion, even if it does become something like flu, for flu we still have vaccination campaigns, we monitor outbreaks – we do a lot for flu.
“It might take a little while until we get there.”
The future looks brighter
Despite this, Mr Cox believes that we should be in a much better place in two years than we are today.
“I believe we will be somewhere between where we are now and something better than the last two summers,” he said.
“It will be much quieter, case levels will be much lower. I hope that is what happens.”
However, there is one thing that needs to be considered when looking to the future.
“If we see new variants, that could change. There is no reason any new variant will be less mild, so the surveillance needs to be able to respond quickly,” added Mr Cox.
At what point will COVID-19 become endemic?
“When something is endemic, we look at it and it is still stable and predictable and we are quite a while from that yet,” said Mr Cox.
“It will be at least another 12 months until we could see things stabilise and it won’t be at the forefront of peoples’ minds.”
The World Health Organization will officially declare the pandemic over when a number of biological and statistical benchmarks are reached: the virus’ contagiousness, mortality rate, and power to overwhelm hospitals, will all be considered.
How has coronavirus impacted Cumbria in the last two years?
“Obviously the impact has been very significant in the last two years. We have been very much dominated by COVID,” said Mr Cox.
“From a public health perspective we have seen a huge impact on the county, we’ve had nearly 1,800 people die from COVID in the last two years, which is hugely significant for the county.
“We’ve seen a huge impact on the local economy. So clearly it has been historic and one of the biggest things in public health terms we’ve seen in the county for years and years.”
Should more measures be in place to curb infections?
Mr Cox acknowledges that any decision on public health legislation is a difficult one.
“Some will believe we should go back to some form of intervention, and we could control COVID by locking down again – but that would be overkill, it would be too much to do that now,” he said.
“There is a balance between the harm prevented by any measures and the harm caused by intervening. If we are too stringent that would damage the economy significantly and that impacts peoples’ health as well.
“It is about finding that balance. That has proved to be one of the biggest challenges in the last two years.”
Have lessons been learned?
The extent of the lessons learned during the pandemic to date is yet to be fully established.
“There is a lot of work going on to work out lessons to improve our pandemic preparedness for the future,” said Mr Cox.
“One thing we know is that pandemics do happen and another will happen, so we need to be prepared for it.
“We’ve also realised the enormous ability science has to generate vaccines. We’ve learnt how important the local response is when dealing with a pandemic.
“A lot of the conversation around response centred around a national response but this has made people realise the impact a local response can have.
“I hope we will build on that lesson for future endemics and pandemics, rather than focussing on thinking everything has to be done nationally.”
When can we expect to see another pandemic or endemic?
“It is difficult to predict. Everyone had been expecting a pandemic soon but many thought it would be flu. The last pandemic was more than 100 years ago,” said Mr Cox.
“We had swine flu a few years ago but that fizzled out and we had built up a lot more immunity than people thought.
“They are not necessarily regular but a flu pandemic could come again next year or in 20 to 30 years.”
