It is often said that what happens in Westminster has no impact to the rest of the country and, often, this is true. However, events at the heart of our Government in recent days will have an impact on Cumbria in the weeks and months to come.
In 2019, then Conservative leader and Prime Minister, Boris Johnson, won a large majority of the seats in Parliament, a mandate which he claimed gave him the right to continue to lead the country despite any little local difficulties he may currently face.
Now there are two sides to this: firstly, apart from those in Boris Johnson’s constituency, fellow Conservative MPs and members of their party, we, the public do not actually choose our Prime Minister. Instead, while choosing the person to represent us in the House of Commons, our vote also counts towards the political party and if they end up with a majority of the seats, their leader becomes PM.
This is the ‘first past the post’ democratic system which means that we can end up with a Government and/or a Prime Minister even if only a majority voted for their party.
In 2019, despite the claim of an overwhelming majority, the percentages of votes show something quite different. Conservatives gained 43.6 per cent of the votes cast, which means that 56.4 per cent of votes cast were not for the Conservatives.
This also means that despite gaining a minority of the votes cast, their MPs can bring forward policies that the majority might not like or want, however outlandish or extreme. That is the nature of our democratic beast.
In terms of Boris Johnson, and the 2019 election, there is little doubt he made a connection with a range of voters who might, in more normal times, have been more traditional in their choice of party to support. This was no more true that in the so-called red wall seats and we will remember that this translated into something called Workington Man.
Who will Cumbria’s voters go for next time?
Now you don’t need a degree in politics and economics (although, as it happens, this cat does) to look at the Cumbrian constituencies and predict how they might fall in any given election.
Penrith and the Border would vote for any cat that wore a blue scarf.
Westmorland and Lonsdalr, and the not insignificant impact of their local MP, Tim Farron, would be expected to return a Liberal Democrat. Copeland, both because of the way it is tied so closely to the nuclear industry, and now it also includes true blue Keswick and the north west Lakes, it is hard to see anything but a Tory victory even if the current MP was closely linked to Johnson as Parliamentary Private Secretary.
Barrow and Furness, with a solid industrial base might be expected to be Labour but with so many local jobs reliant on nuclear submarines, it probably didn’t help when then Labour leader, Jeremy Corbyn, said he would support the building of the submarines but wouldn’t arm them. Another Conservative seat.
Carlisle and Workington are more difficult to predict. Carlisle was red Labour, it seems forever until John Stephenson took it in 2010. It is suggested it remains blue Tory more to do with the failure of Labour put up an effective challenge than the appeal of the Tories, albeit 2019 Conservatives did have the additional appeal of the Brexit mandate.
Workington, with its solid West Cumbrian industrial base outgunning its more rural hinterland, should be red Labour but 2019 certainly demonstrated the Brexit effect with the election of its first Tory MP since Richard Page took the seat in the 1976 by election when Fred Peart accepted a peerage. Now that the Brexit effect is less influential, this seat probably gives Labour its best chance of having a Cumbrian MP, an aspiration certainly enhanced by their recent gains in the Cumberland Council election.
Of course, as I write this, there is no prospect of an election until 2024 at the earliest, unless a new Conservative Prime Minister decides to ride their honeymoon period with a snap election. This may allow time for the party to regroup and plan for the next election.
What is the answer?
What, of course, there is no prospect of, is a change to our democratic system. We often hear calls for a proportional representative system and while that may have attractions in ensuring the broader views of the electorate are catered for and finding a consensus does protect from the more extreme policies, it is not always a good thing.
Remember the long gone European elections and the party list system? This meant that Cumbria had no MEPs from the local area with the lists for all the parties dominated by the main urban areas of the North West – Manchester, Liverpool and central Lancashire.
The only other answer, at least for this cat, is the dismantling of the party stranglehold on politics and the rise of the independent candidate who can set forward a vision for their local area, where they are able to forge alliances with like-minded fellow MPs and where the candidate is known and trusted.
Regrettably, with the events of the past few years, trust in any politician is in very short supply.
About Cumbria Cat
Born in Cumberland and, from 2023, will be back living in Cumberland, having spent most of the past 50 years in some place called Cumbria, this cat has used up all nine lives as well as a few others.
Always happy to curl up on a friendly lap, the preference is for a local lap and not a lap that wants to descend on the county to change it into something it isn’t. After all, you might think Cumbria/Cumberland/Westmorland is a land forged by nature – the glaciers, the rivers, breaking down the volcanic rocks or the sedimentary layers – but, in reality, the Cumbria we know today was forged by generations of local people, farmers, miners, quarriers, and foresters.
This cat is a local moggy, not a Burmese, Ocicat or Persian, and although I have been around the block a few times, whenever I jump, I end up on my feet back in my home county. I am passionate about the area, its people, past, present and future, and those who come to admire what we hold dear, be it lakes and mountains, wild sea shores, vibrant communities or the history as rich and diverse as anywhere in the world.
