Three of Cumbria’s Conservative MPs are predicted to lose their seats in the next election, according to a new poll.
Pollster Find Out Now and Electoral Calculus have run a regression poll on voting intention for Westminster on behalf of the Daily Telegraph. This was a large-scale poll, involving over 10,200 respondents, carried out from November 29 to 1 December 1.
The poll predicts that the Conservatives would lose 77 seats if the election was to be held imminently, reducing the party’s majority to just 17, with Labour picking up 68 more seats.
The same poll predicts that the SNP would bring in 11 more seats than in the last General Election, with Plaid Cymru picking up one extra seat. The Liberal Democrats are forecasted to lose three seats.
What does the poll predict for Cumbria’s MPs?
Barrow
Conservative MP Simon Fell is predicted to lose his seat to Labour. The poll predicts that Labour would win one per cent more of the votes than the Conservatives.
Labour – 23%
Conservatives – 22%
Green – 4%
Liberal – 3%
Reform UK – 2%
Other – 1%
Non-voter – 45%
Carlisle
John Stevenson, Conservative MP for Carlisle, is predicted to retain his seat in the next election.
Conservatives – 23%
Labour – 22%
Green – 3%
Liberal – 3%
Reform UK – 2%
Other – 1%
Non-voter – 46%
Copeland
Conservative MP Trudy Harrison is expected to lose her constituency seat in an imminent election.
Labour – 24%
Conservative – 23%
Green – 4%
Liberal – 3%
Reform UK – 2%
Other – 1%
Non-voter – 43%
Penrith and the Border
The Conservatives are predicted to retain their seat in Penrith and the Border. The current MP for the constituency is Neil Hudson.
Conservatives – 27%
Labour – 18%
Green – 5%
Liberal – 5%
Reform UK – 2%
Other – 1%
Non-voter – 42%
Westmorland and Lonsdale
The Liberal Democrats are expected to retain their seat, which is currently held by Tim Farron.
Liberal – 24%
Conservatives – 23%
Labour – 12%
Green – 3%
Reform UK – 2%
Other – 1%
Non-voter – 35%
Workington
Labour would be expected to win back the seat from the Conservatives in an imminent election. The seat is currently held by Mark Jenkinson.
Labour – 24%
Conservative – 21%
Green – 4%
Liberal – 3%
Reform UK – 3%
Other – 1%
Non-voter – 45%
