Carlisle United’s latest surge to within a point of the automatic promotion places hasn’t been enough to convince some they will finish in the top three.
Experts at FiveThirtyEight use their ratings for each team thousands of times a season to produce their prediction for each side’s final points tally and league position.
Their latest assessment has Carlisle to finish fifth – firmly in the promotion play-offs – with an end-of-season tally of 75 points.
County neighbours Barrow are predicted to fade away ands finish outside the play-offs in 10th with 66 points.
The computer predicts that the current top three will gain automatic promotion but that Stevenage will come through to win the title on goal difference from Leyton Orient with both having 89 points.
That will put them nine points clear of Northampton, who currently lead Carlisle by a single point.
Over the closing half of the season Salford City are tipped to finish strongly, coming through to take fourth by a point from Carlisle.
If the computer is correct then the Blues would host Swindon in the play-off semi-final with Stock[port going to Salford.
At the bottom they say Hartlepool and Rochdale will be doomed to relegation, both on 39 points.
