Supercomputer FiveThiryEight makes Stockport County the strong favourites to win promotion from the League Two play-offs.
It was fed all the stats for the four competing clubs – completed by Carlisle, Salford and Bradford City – ahead of this weekend’s semi-finals.
The point has been made that none of the four won their final fixture of the regular season on Monday – and Salford could have been overhauled in seventh.
If Mansfield Town had scored one more goal at Colchester they would have pipped them to the last play-off place.
Apart from that 1-0 home defeat by Gillingham, Salford’s recent form has been good and is better than that of both Bradford and Carlisle, but the best run of form has come from Stockport as you have to go back to February for their last defeat – at Barrow.
Going into their clash with Salford they took four League points from them – winning 2-0 at the Peninsula Stadium earlier this season, while the return finished 1-1 at Edgeley Park.
Likewise Carlisle have the edge on results over Bradford having beaten City 1-0 at Brunton Park on Boxing Day and earning a point from a goalless draw at Valley Parade in March.
Overall Stockport are considered the strong favourites by the supercomputer with a 34 per cent chance of promotion. Bradford are considered the second favourites at 23 per cent, whilst Carlisle and Salford are predicted to have a 22 per cent and 21 per cent chance respectively.
