The first official prediction for the General Election suggests Labour will take every seat in Cumbria – apart from Westmorland and Lonsdale.
The YouGov projection said nationally, Labour’s Keir Starmer could be heading to Downing Street with a historic majority of 194 seats.
The Conservatives would be reduced to 140 seats, according to the YouGov model. If that turns out to be the case, it would be their worst performance at a British General Election since 1906.
The model used survey data from almost 60,000 respondents.
In 2019, Barrow and Furness and the Workington constituencies – both traditionally Labour strongholds – turned blue for the first time since 2010. The 2019 General Election saw political parties target these so-called red wall seats and Workington man was the name given for the voters the Conservatives wanted to win over.
Westmorland and Lonsdale has been a Liberal Democrat seat since 2005, when Tim Farron was elected to Parliament. Previously it had been held by the Conservatives.
According to YouGov’s projection this week, Cumbria’s constituencies would be split as follows:
| Constituency/Party | Conservative | Labour | Lib Dem | Green | Reform UK | Other |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barrow and Furness | 31% | 49% | 3% | 5% | 11% | 1% |
| Carlisle | 31% | 46% | 4% | 5% | 12% | 1% |
| Penrith and Solway | 34% | 41% | 8% | 5% | 12% | 1% |
| Whitehaven and Workington | 25% | 53% | 3% | 6% | 12% | 1% |
| Westmorland and Lonsdale | 23% | 8% | 57% | 2% | 8% | 1% |
Who will you vote for in the 2024 General Election?
Who will you vote for in the 2024 General Election? Take part in our poll below so we can see if YouGov’s projection is on the money.
Candidates announced so far in Cumbria
Barrow and Furness
- Simon Fell – The Conservative Party
- Michelle Scrogham – The Labour Party
- Adrian Waite – Liberal Democrats
- Barry Morgan – Reform UK
- Lorraine Wrennall – The Green Party
Carlisle
- John Stevenson – The Conservative Party
- Julie Minns – The Labour Party
- Brian Wernham – Liberal Democrats
- Stephen Ward – Reform UK
- Gavin Hawkton – The Green Party
- Rachel Hayton – SDP
Penrith & Solway
- Mark Jenkinson – Conservative Party
- Markus Campbell-Savours – Labour Party
- Julia Aglionby – Liberal Democrats
- Matthew Moody – Reform UK
- Susan Denham-Smith – The Green Party
- Shaun Long – SDP
Westmorland and Lonsdale
- Matty Jackman – Conservative Party
- Pippa Smith – The Labour Party
- Tim Farron – Liberal Democrats
- James Townley – Reform UK
Whitehaven and Workington
- Andrew Johnson – Conservative Party
- Josh MacAlister – Labour Party
- Chris Wills – Liberal Democrats
- David Surtees – Reform UK
- Jill Perry – The Green Party
Where is my constituency?
Constituency boundaries in Cumbria have changed – here’s our guide to how they have altered:
